As of 2016 midyear, Côte d’Ivoire had a population of 23.7 million, annual population growth rate of 2.5%, and 42.7% of Côte d’Ivoire’s population was under age 15. Use of modern contraceptives remains relatively low, despite ongoing efforts to increase demand for family planning and access to contraceptives. According to the 2012 Demographic Health Survey, it was estimated that 18.0% of women use contraceptives to space or limit births and 12.0% use a modern method. The Total Fertility Rate, or the average number of children per woman over the course of her lifetime, is declining but remains high: it reduced from 6.6 children in 1990 to 5.1 children per woman in 2015.

Population pyramids can be used to show change in population age structure over time. Here we can see that Côte d’Ivoire’s age structure is beginning to shift to older ages.

The broad bases in both “Côte d’Ivoire 1970” and “Côte d’Ivoire 1990” represent a large number of children in relation to the working age population. “Côte d’Ivoire 2010” shows a base that is beginning to narrow at the youngest ages, representing the early stages of a fertility decline.  “Côte d’Ivoire 2030” is the United Nations projection of Côte d’Ivoire’s population age structure if fertility continues to decline. This pyramid assumes that by 2030, fertility will decline to an average of 4.1 children per woman over the course of her lifetime. “Côte d’Ivoire 2050” shows a further decline in fertility and ongoing changes to the age structure. This pyramid shows a larger working age population than currently exists compared to the number of dependent children and elders.

Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Côte d’Ivoire

If Côte d’Ivoire makes significant investments in reproductive health and family planning, fertility levels may begin to decline more rapidly, and children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Côte d’Ivoire may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend.  Known work on the demographic dividend in Côte d’Ivoire includes the following:

  • The Sahel Women Empowerment and Demographic Dividend Project will be implemented in Côte d’Ivoire. This project is a partnership and joint response by the United Nations and the World Bank Group to a request from the Presidents of six countries of the Sahel -Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad.
  • An informative book is available that explores how Côte d’Ivoire can realize a demographic dividend. This research was funded by Agence Française de Développement (AFD) and completed by Dr. Jean-Pierre Guengant.

Population Reference Bureau, 2015 World Population Data Sheet, (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2015).

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, (New York: United Nations, 2015) custom data acquired via website

World Bank Group. (2016) World DataBank. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx

Education statistics were taken from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey for each country.

World Bank Group. (2014) Worldwide Governance Indicators. Retrieved from http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home

World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, (Geneva: Switzerland, 2014).

Definitions

Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income or consumption expenditure among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality.

Dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents--people younger than 15 or older than 64--to the working-age population--those ages 15 to 64. Although each country’s experience is different, countries that have realized a demographic dividend typically have a dependency ratio of less than 50 dependents for every 100 working-age adults.

Worldwide Governance Indicators are measured on a scale from -2.5 to +2.5. The closer to 2.5 the rating is, the stronger the governance. Government Effectiveness is a composite governance indicator with data from multiple sources. Political stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism is a composite governance indicator with data from multiple sources More information on methodology available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home

Global Competitiveness Index defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, sets the level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. The different aspects of competitiveness are captured in 12 pillars, ranging from institutional strength to market size. http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015/